<![CDATA[CTV News - Inflation]]> /rss/ctv-news-inflation-1.6689309 Thu, 16 May 2024 13:14:00 -0400 en Copyright Bellmedia <![CDATA[Loblaw agrees to sign grocery code of conduct after months of negotiations]]> /business/loblaw-agrees-to-sign-grocery-code-of-conduct-after-months-of-negotiations-1.6889831 Loblaw Cos. Ltd. said Thursday it's ready to sign on to the grocery code of conduct, paving the way for an agreement that's been years in the making.

After six months of negotiations, Loblaw president and CEO Per Bank said the retailer is now ready to sign as long as other industry players do too.

"The code now is fair, and it will not lead to higher prices," he said in an interview.

The code has been developed by a group of leaders in the food industry, with the intention of evening the playing field for suppliers and smaller retailers.

But it appeared to come to a halt last December when Loblaw and Walmart Canada said they wouldn't sign the voluntary code because they were concerned it would raise prices for shoppers.

Nick Henn, Loblaw's chief legal officer, said the underlying principles of the code haven't changed.

"We felt that the words weren't clear in lots of areas, and so we've spent some time with the working committee and the interim board, fixing those areas, improving the code and providing the clarity that we thought it lacked the last time around," he said in the same interview alongside Bank.

One important example was regarding the dispute resolution process, Henn said. Loblaw wanted to make clear when it would be appropriate for issues to go to an adjudicator, and when it wouldn't -- such as in the case of price negotiations between suppliers and retailers.

"That was a big concern for us. And so with that no longer being an issue under the draft code, we're much less concerned about the code leading to higher prices," Henn said.

June 1, 2025, is the target date for the code to take effect, he said.

"We've worked very hard to get to where we are," said Michael Graydon, CEO of the Food, Health & Consumer Products of Canada association and chairman of the interim board for the code.

Work can now continue on establishing the office of the grocery code, said Graydon, adding he hopes it can begin "sooner rather than later."

"We now have all the major grocers with the exception of one, and so some work needs to be done in regards to bringing them into the fold," said Graydon, referring to Walmart. Costco has also had "some inquiries around certain aspects" of the code, he said, but he hopes they will also agree to participate.

Walmart Canada spokeswomanSarah Kennedy said the company "just received the latest draft of the revised Grocery Code of Conduct, which was not previously shared with us."

"We will review it and determine next steps," she said in an emailed statement. "As we've said all along, we continue to be focused on our customers' best interests."

Empire is glad to see another retailer sign on to the code, said spokeswoman Sarah Dawson in an email, noting the company's CEO Michael Medline was the first Canadian grocery leader to advocate for a code.

"This brings the industry one step closer to having all stakeholders agree to the principles of engagement, which creates a better foundation for collaboration even while maintaining the competitive element of our industry," said Dawson.

Grocer Metro Inc. reiterated its support of the code, with spokeswoman Marie-Claude Bacon saying the company is "convinced that the participation of all grocers and suppliers is essential to its success."

Gary Sands, a member of the code's interim board and senior vice-president at the Canadian Federation of Independent Grocers, said he's "delighted" to have Loblaw on board.

"I think this gives us a significant push forward," he said.

"We still have a bit to go to make sure that we have every major stakeholder in, but this is a real milestone today."

Over the past several months, calls to make the code mandatory have grown. In February, the House of Commons committee studying food prices told Loblaw and Walmart that if they wouldn't agree to a voluntary code, the committee would recommend it be made law.

Speaking on conference call on May 1 to discuss the company's latest financial results,Bank had said he was "cautiously optimistic" that an agreement could be reached.

The call was on the same day some Canadians said they were going to start boycotting all Loblaw-owned stores as frustration mounts over higher food prices and concentration in the grocery sector.

The boycott, organized by a Reddit group, is currently underway. The organizers posted several demands for their movement and the one at the top of the list was for Loblaw to sign the grocery code of conduct.

The negotiations over the code predated the boycott, said Bank, so the announcement "has nothing to do with their demands." But he recently had a meeting with boycott organizer Emily Johnson, and said he's sure she will be happy to hear that Loblaw has agreed to the code.

Though food inflation has been an industry-wide phenomenon, sparked by global pressures like the war in Ukraine, for many, Loblaw has become the poster child for food inflation in Canada.

The day after the boycott began, Bank and Loblaw chairman Galen Weston pushed back on what they called "misguided criticism" of the company.

"As a well-known company and Canada's largest grocer, it is natural that Loblaw would be singled out as a focal point for media and government and of course consumer frustrations," said Weston at the grocer's annual meeting May 2.

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1.6889831 Thu, 16 May 2024 13:14:00 -0400 Thu, 16 May 2024 15:26:10 -0400
<![CDATA[Half of telecom providers not following website complaints section rules: watchdog]]> /business/half-of-telecom-providers-not-following-website-complaints-section-rules-watchdog-1.6889362 Canada's telecom and television complaints watchdog says many telecom providers aren't following complaints section rules on their websites, and it's particularly concerned about some repeat offenders.

The Commission for Complaints for Telecom-Television Services (CCTS) released its annual compliance report on Thursday. The report found just over half of the 51 communications providers audited didn't have an easily accessible complaints section on their website.

Just 35 per cent of providers were fully compliant with requirements to inform their customers about the CCTS on their respective websites in both official languages.

However, the watchdog characterized that as a "positive" result, as it was an increase from just 14 per cent that were fully compliant in 2019, and compared with a historical average of around 20 per cent.

The report measures the industry's performance in following the watchdog's complaint-handling process and informing customers about its services. It also captures whether service providers are meeting their obligations to pay CCTS fees and share financial information with the commission.

"The good news is that every year we do these audits, most of the providers do work with us to fully address their compliance issues," said Janet Lo, CCTS assistant commissioner for legal, regulatory and stakeholder affairs, in an interview.

"We would like to see that improve and we would like to see that number continue to rise, but it is an improvement compared to historical rates."

The report found 29 per cent of audited companies were non-compliant entirely, with no CCTS information on their websites.

The commission requires search functions to direct visitors to information about the CCTS’ dispute resolution process when looking up relevant keywords. Lo said this information should be "easy to find," which the commission defines as no more than two clicks away from a website's home page.

Despite annual reminders of those rules, the report said both Rogers Communications Inc. and Telus Corp. have been non-compliant with search function requirements in four of the past five years.

"The main issue for both (providers) was that searching their business websites did not result in the required CCTS information. Another issue has been missing key words on their French and English residential websites," the report said.

"Overall, this is concerning given that Rogers and Telus have been audited for compliance with the public awareness plan since 2017 and they are well aware of this requirement."

Lo said publicly naming companies that break the rules is one tool at the commission's disposal to enforce the obligations in the case of recurring compliance issues.

In more severe cases, such as a provider refusing to implement a resolution ordered by the watchdog following a complaint, Lo said the CCTS would consider expelling the company from its membership. That would prompt the Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission to get involved, opening the door for financial penalties.

"We typically reserve those for very rare and egregious cases of non-compliance," Lo said.

"It's really saved for cases where providers have denied customers access to the CCTS, or through the complaints, they have denied them a right of recourse or remedy to be made whole."

Last month, a report by the commission found complaints about phone, internet and television services were up 43 per cent halfway through its reporting year. It pointed to an "alarming" rise in customer gripes related to overcharges on bills, calling the trend a "cause for concern."

Its latest report on non-compliance said it identified around a dozen providers that "did not promptly implement customer redress to which they had agreed, or which was mandated by the CCTS after an investigation" in 2023.

The report said the CCTS worked with those providers to ensure the customers received the required remedies.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 16, 2024.

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1.6889362 Thu, 16 May 2024 07:55:20 -0400 Thu, 16 May 2024 07:55:20 -0400
<![CDATA[Home sales dip in April from prior month as spring listings perk up: CREA]]> /canada/home-sales-dip-in-april-from-prior-month-as-spring-listings-perk-up-crea-1.6887830 The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes changing hands in April fell from the previous month despite an influx of new listings hitting the market.

On a month-over-month basis, CREA said home sales in April were down 1.7 per cent, while newly listed properties available for sale rose 2.8 per cent to kick off the spring market.

The average price of a home sold last month amounted to $703,446, down 1.8 per cent from April 2023, according to data released Wednesday by the association.

Home sales rose 10.1 per cent compared with a year ago, but CREA attributed the gain primarily to the early Easter long weekend. Good Friday and Easter landed on March 29 and March 31 this year compared with April 7 and 9 last year.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart said this spring has seen contrasting conditions compared with the same season last year.

“April 2023 was characterized by a surge of buyers re-entering a market with new listings at 20-year lows, whereas this spring thus far has been the opposite, with a healthier number of properties to choose from but less enthusiasm on the demand side,” he said in a press release.

Slower monthly sales amid more new listings meant there was a 6.5 per cent jump in the overall number of properties on the market — the second largest month-over-month gain on record.

The national housing market is also seeing the highest inventory levels since just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 4.2 months of inventory at the end of April, compared with 3.9 months at the end of March.

The long-term average is about five months of inventory.

Jason Ralph, broker of record for Royal LePage Team Realty in Ottawa, said that while local inventory levels in his market aren't quite as high as the national figures, relatively balanced conditions are giving buyers more negotiating power.

"Balanced markets tend to be a place where buyers can have conditions like home inspections, financing conditions," he said in an interview.

"We consider it a little bit more of a fair market where neither buyers or sellers have, let's call it, an advantage."

He added now is a good time to buy, even as some remain cautious about when the Bank of Canada will begin cutting its key interest rate.

"There are some buyers on the sidelines waiting for that positive news release with the interest rate drop, but I see more buyers [coming] out of the woodwork," said Ralph.

"We've had a pretty strong start to the year compared to last year ... I think people are becoming a little bit more comfortable with the rates that we're going to be dealing with."

Also on Wednesday, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. released its latest data on housing starts for April, showing the annual pace of starts edged down one per cent compared with March.

The overall drop came as the annual pace of starts in urban centres essentially flatlined in April. The national housing agency said last year's challenging borrowing conditions contributed to the downward trend.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 15, 2024.

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1.6887830 Wed, 15 May 2024 09:57:00 -0400 Wed, 15 May 2024 13:08:55 -0400
<![CDATA[Mortgage companies could intensify the next recession, U.S. officials warn]]> /business/mortgage-companies-could-intensify-the-next-recession-u-s-officials-warn-1.6885693 U.S. officials worry the next recession could be intensified by a cascading series of failures in the mortgage industry caused by crashing home prices, frozen financial markets and soaring delinquencies.

The U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council, a SWAT team of financial regulators formed after the 2008 crisis, sounded the alarm on Friday about an increasingly influential corner of the industry that has largely escaped scrutiny: non-bank mortgage companies.

Unlike traditional banks, non-bank mortgage companies are heavily exposed to swings in the mortgage market, depend on funding that can dry up during times of stress and don’t have stable deposits to rely on as a safety net. And, unlike banks, these companies are lightly regulated at the national level.

FSOC warned that these unique vulnerabilities risk a domino effect in a future crisis where multiple mortgage companies fail, borrowers are locked out of the mortgage market and the federal government is left holding the bag.

“Put simply, the vulnerabilities of non-bank mortgage companies can amplify shocks in the mortgage market and undermine financial stability,” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, who chairs FSOC, said in the report.

Federal regulators are calling for states and Congress to take action to address the risks posed here, including creating an industry-funded backstop to ease turmoil caused when a mortgage company goes under.

Despite the wonky term, non-bank mortgage companies have become vital players that make most home mortgages in the United States today. They include major brands such as Rocket Mortgage, PennyMac and Mr. Cooper.

As of 2022, non-bank mortgage companies originated about two-thirds of US mortgages and owned the servicing rights on 54 per cent of mortgage balances, according to FSOC. That’s up significantly from 2008.

In fact, non-bank mortgage servicers hold the servicing rights on nearly US$6.3 trillion in unpaid balances on agency-backed mortgages — representing 70 per cent of the total.

Non-bank mortgage companies have “vulnerabilities” that could cause them to “amplify and transmit the effect of a shock to the mortgage market and broader financial system,” FSOC said.

For example, if home prices crash in a future crisis, mortgage companies could simultaneously lose money and face cash crunches that would make it hard for them to make required payments to investors on behalf of struggling borrowers, FSOC said. These challenges would be exacerbated by the relatively high amounts of debt these companies have.

This pressure on non-bank mortgage companies would then hurt borrowers seeking mortgages and could force the federal government to assume the obligations, according to regulators.

Plea for action

Yellen and her colleagues on Friday called for state regulators to enhance requirements and standards on non-bank mortgage companies, including requiring them to map out how they could be safely wound down in a crisis.

To address liquidity pressure during a time of stress, regulators called for Congress to consider legislation to provide new authorities to Ginnie Mae to expand an assistance backdrop program.

Additionally, regulators said Congress should consider establishing a fund — financed by non-bank mortgage companies — to “provide liquidity to non-bank mortgage servicers that are in bankruptcy or have reached the point of failure.”

In response, the Mortgage Bankers Association, an industry trade group, said it supports FSOC’s goals of a “safe, stable and sustainable financial services marketplace” but described some of the recommendations as “unnecessary.”

“Years of punitive regulatory capital treatment have already limited the willingness and ability of depository institutions to participate in the mortgage lending and servicing markets,” Bob Broeksmit, president and CEO of the MBA, said in a statement on Friday. “While we support national standards for capital and liquidity requirements, layering duplicative supervision requirements or supervisory entities onto a heavily regulated market will add significant cost and complexity.”

The ABA warned that managing these changes could reduce competition and raise borrowing costs.

Scott Olsen, executive director of Community Home Lenders of America, another trade group, said the FSOC report does not indicate significant taxpayer risk and only limited risk to the financial system as a whole.

“Given the current homeownership affordability challenges, CHLA hopes regulators do not overreact to this limited risk with regulations and fees that restrict mortgage access to credit,” Olsen said in a statement.

Even some regulators have concerns about the new FSOC plan.

Brandon Milhorn, president and CEO of the Conference of State Bank Supervisors, cautioned in a statement on Friday that the recommendation to establish a new liquidity fund is “premature at best.”

“Before considering any such proposal, Congress should require substantially more research and analysis regarding the potentially dramatic, unintended consequences of this recommendation,” Milhorn said. “I am concerned that this recommendation could negatively impact the non-bank mortgage market, particularly for low- and moderate-income borrowers, communities of color, first-time homebuyers, and veterans.”

However, Patricia McCoy, a professor at Boston College Law School, cautioned that non-bank mortgage companies’ reliance on short-term loans for financing “makes them vulnerable to collapse” if borrowing rates spike or lending dries up.

“Non-bank mortgage firms are thinly capitalized, which makes them vulnerable to failure if they lose financing or mortgage defaults spike,” said McCoy, a former mortgage regulator. “Starting in early 2007, we saw a tsunami of non-bank mortgage firms fail precisely for these reasons.”

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1.6885693 Mon, 13 May 2024 20:03:00 -0400 Mon, 13 May 2024 20:03:08 -0400
<![CDATA[Expecting an interest rate cut in June? Don't bet on it after new jobs data]]> /business/expecting-an-interest-rate-cut-in-june-don-t-bet-on-it-after-new-jobs-data-1.6881837 Canada's labour market rebounded in April, adding more than 90,000 jobs, a staggering number of new positions after four consecutive months of little change.

Now, a notable economist says that unexpected growth isn't good news for the Bank of Canada, and could mean that cuts to the key interest rate could be further off than expected.

"The Bank of Canada… is trying to re-attain the 2 per cent inflation target," Don Drummond, a professor at the School of Policy Studies at Queen’s University and former chief economist for TD Bank, told CTV News Channel. "And boy, that's a big increase in employment.

"Life in the Canadian economy"

Canada's economy added nearly five times the number of jobs that were forecast for the month -- while the unemployment rate held steady at 6.1 per cent.

Drummond says the latest data shows there's "some revised life in the Canadian economy" and that it's proving to be harder to "kill the beast" of inflation than originally expected.

Many analysts expected the policymakers at the Bank of Canada to cut its key lending rate at in June – however the new numbers have quickly put a damper on the market speculation.

"You do have to cool the economy to a certain extent," Drummond told CTV News Channel host Roger Petersen on Friday. "That seems to be kind of difficult… at least through interest rate increases."

"Frustrating" data for Bank of Canada

The job gains are the largest since January 2023, and according to Statistics Canada, are from a combination of both part-time and full-time work.

Drummond says that it's a perfect example of the "difficulty of conducting monetary policy" because markets are already incorporating an "easing of the monetary policy" even though it's yet to take place.

"The anticipation of interest rate declines is narrowing some credit spreads."

So as it proves harder for the Bank of Canada to hit its 2 per cent inflation target, what would cause policymakers to consider a rate cut?

"A more modest increase in real wages," according to Drummond. "I hate to say it, but probably a somewhat weaker labor market."  

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1.6881837 Fri, 10 May 2024 13:35:00 -0400 Fri, 10 May 2024 13:35:21 -0400
<![CDATA[What is basic income, and how would it impact me? ]]> /canada/what-is-basic-income-and-how-would-it-impact-me-1.6881799 Parliamentarians are considering a pair of bills aiming to lift people out of poverty through a basic income program, but some fear these types of systems could result in more taxes for Canadians who are already financially struggling.

Sen. Kim Pate and NDP MP Leah Gazan introduced bills S-233 and C-223, respectively, in a bid to create the first national framework to provide all people over age 17 across Canada, including temporary workers, permanent residents and refugee claimants, a guaranteed livable basic income. The bills contain the same proposal.

Pate said they created two bills with the same text to increase the chances of having at least one of them passed by the Senate or House of Commons.

"MP Leah Gazan and I wanted to provide the opportunity for both Chambers to study the bill simultaneously," the senator said in an email to CTVNews.ca.

In the Senate, Bill S-233 passed second reading and is under review. MPs debated in the House of Commons this week.

As these bills undergo scrutiny, CTVNews.ca asked a few experts how a basic income program could affect workers and business owners in Canada.

What is basic income?

is an unconditional payment the government provides to individuals regularly, according to Coalition Canada, a national network made up of basic income advocates.

"It ensures everyone can meet their basic needs and live with dignity regardless of their work status," the group says on its website.

There are various types of basic income programs.

One approach, called a universal basic income, gives a fixed amount to everybody, every month, regardless of their income, said Jim Dunn, a professor of health, aging and society at McMaster University in Hamilton, Ont., in a video interview with CTVNews.ca.

In this case, even those who are already millionaires could get the same amount of money per month as middle-class or lower-income residents, and people don't have to apply.

Another type of basic income program is a negative income tax, which is more complicated to administer than universal basic income, Dunn said. An example is Ontario's Basic Income Pilot Project.

"Basically they set an income threshold that everybody is going to meet, and whatever you earn in the labour market or on social assistance, they top it up to get you to that amount," said Dunn, who co-led the evaluation of the Ontario basic income pilot, which was cancelled before it was completed.

To be eligible, participants must be below the threshold, which for the Ontario pilot was $16,989 per year for an individual.

In both cases, the government would provide the money and observers expect workers would be paying more taxes since they would be earning more.

How would it affect workers?

Dunn views the income programs as benefiting both workers and businesses.

He said basic income programs can help workers find time to look for the right job, leave an unhealthy relationship, afford health care not covered by public health insurance, and generally improve their lives.

"Sometimes the money allows them to afford transportation that they otherwise couldn't afford to be able to get to a job," Dunn added.

Not only will lower-income workers and people who are un- or under-employed no longer depend on social assistance, but they will also be incentivized to work more hours and thus earn more money, he explained.

Those who receive social assistance have less incentive to do this because they can have their benefits clawed back if they surpass the government's cap on earnings, he said.

Earning more from basic income would result in more taxes, but Dunn argued there are benefits as well. If more people are working and earning more, the government will have higher tax revenues that can be spent on more services and programs, benefiting everyone, he said.

"Sure, they're going to pay more taxes, but they're still going to have more money to spend and to enjoy a better lifestyle," Dunn said.

Having sufficient income can help people solve other problems in their lives, he added.

"There are examples of people leaving bad relationships ... because they now have the financial security to do it," he said.

How will it affect business owners, the economy?

In Dunn's opinion, the positive effect on workers will spill over to businesses.

People with lower incomes tend to have with irregular work schedules, high stress, and other health and safety issues.

With basic income, workers and businesses will feel "more secure" and "more productive," he said.

Fewer employees will be absent from work and workplaces will be more productive because people on basic income won't be coping with the stresses that come with poverty and juggling second jobs, he said.

But Franco Terrazzano, federal director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, says a basic income program would result in tax hikes and be "disastrous" for the Canadian economy.

"What specific tax would depend on what the government decides," Terrazzano said in an email to CTVNews.ca. "But it would mean higher taxes to pay for this massively expensive program."

He fears companies will face other challenges as well. "It would also make it harder for Canadian businesses to find and retain talent because if the government pays people not to work, fewer people will work."

Based on Ontario’s basic income pilot project, the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated that the basic gross cost of nationally would range between $30.5 billion and $71.4 billion from November 2020 to March 2021, Terrazzano pointed out.

John Oakey, vice-president of taxation with Chartered Professional Accountants of Canada in Dartmouth, N.S., questions how the government would be able to afford a costly program.

"The problem with putting it in place is there's a consequence," Oakey said in a video interview with CTVNews.ca. "If you introduce universal basic income, which would be a government expenditure, the government would have to finance that and pay for it somehow. Either it's going to continue to run deficits in order to fund that along with all the other programs, or it would have to increase taxes in order to not run additional deficits in order to fund this, or it would have to decrease already existing expenditures."

He said income taxes would be the main source of funding for the federal government's expenditures.

Canada's experience with the Canada Emergency Response Benefit, which contributed to significantly increasing the country's debt, may indicate what a basic income program could look like, Oakey said.

The program provided financial support to workers who lost their income because of the pandemic, but was always meant to be in the short term.

Since the time it was implemented, many Canadians have come forward with stories of being asked to repay thousands of dollars as a result, money they say they don't have.

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1.6881799 Fri, 10 May 2024 13:28:00 -0400 Fri, 10 May 2024 15:28:27 -0400
<![CDATA[Average hourly wage in Canada now $34.95: StatCan]]> /business/average-hourly-wage-in-canada-now-34-95-statcan-1.6881356 Canada's economy added five times the number of jobs that were forecast for April and the unemployment rate unexpectedly held at 6.1 per cent, data showed on Friday, dampening market bets for a June rate cut.

The economy added a net 90,400 jobs while analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a gain of 18,000 jobs and the unemployment rate to rise to 6.2 per cent.

The gains - largest since the 110,000 jobs added in January 2023 - were a mix of part-time and full-time work, and entirely in the services-producing industries, .

 Download the CTV News App for breaking news alerts and video on all the top stories

Analysts said the data might prompt the Bank of Canada (BoC) to think twice about when to start cutting rates from their current 23-year-high of five per cent.

Money markets trimmed their bets on a June rate cut to 48 per cent from 54 per cent. They are now fully pricing in a cut in September compared to July before the report was released.

"Certainly this raises the bar for a very near-term rate cut and I think it speaks to how the balance of risks really does support the Bank of Canada potentially waiting until July," said Andrew Kelvin, chief Canada strategist at TD Securities.

The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.3 per cent to $1.3640 to the U.S. dollar, or 73.31 U.S. cents.

The average for permanent employees slowed to an annual rate of 4.8 per cent from five per cent in March. The wage growth rate - closely tracked by the BoC because of its effect on inflation - is now the slowest since it dipped to 3.9 per cent in June.

The slowdown in wages adds to signs that the economy is moving in line with the BoC's projections.

Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said the jump in employment was not a total surprise, given healthy Canadian population growth.

"It's not quite the clear cut story for the Bank of Canada that the headline job number would suggest. It would definitely give the bank pause if they were leaning to cut but I still think the real heavyweight indicator here is the next inflation reading (on May 21)," he said by phone.

The bank is looking at a broad range of indicators for evidence that inflation is heading toward a two per cent target, and said last month that a rate cut in June was possible if a recent cooling trend in prices is sustained.

Stephen Brown, deputy chief North America economist at Capital Economics, said the strong numbers gave the Bank of Canada time to see whether inflation would continue falling.

"That makes it more likely the Bank will wait until the late July meeting to cut interest rates, as there are three (inflation) reports ahead of that meeting but just one before the early June meeting," he said in a note.

Friday's jobs report showed that employment in the services sector increased by a net 100,700 jobs, led by professional, scientific and technical services as well as accommodation and food services. The goods sector lost a net 10,400 jobs, mostly in construction and agriculture.

The employment rate, or the proportion of the population who are employed, also held steady at 61.4 per cent in April, after six consecutive months of declines, StatCan noted.

(Additional reporting by David Ljunggren in Ottawa, Rod Nickel in Winnipeg and Fergal Smith in Toronto;Editing by Dale Smith, Philippa Fletcher and Ros Russell)

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1.6881356 Fri, 10 May 2024 07:37:00 -0400 Fri, 10 May 2024 10:51:53 -0400
<![CDATA[Bank of Canada says financial system is stable, but risks remain]]> /business/bank-of-canada-says-financial-system-is-stable-but-risks-remain-1.6879964 The Bank of Canada says the Canadian financial system is stable, but risks remain due to debt servicing costs among households and businesses and stretched valuations of financial assets.

The central bank released its Financial Stability Report on Thursday, which evaluates the risks and stability within the .

“Over the past year, households, businesses, banks and other financial institutions have taken proactive steps to adjust to higher interest rates and to weather economic shocks,” said Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem, during prepared remarks in Ottawa. “The second message is that this adjustment still has some way to go and continues to present risks to financial stability.”

Non-banking sector

The central bank highlights that stretched asset evaluations is a risk to the financial system. Among non-bank participants, such as pension funds and hedge funds, have significantly increased their leverage by 30 per cent over the last 12 months.

“This increases the risk of a sharp correction that could generate system-wide stress,” said Macklem. “The recent rise in the use of leverage in the non-bank financial sector could amplify the effects of such a correction.”

Among the firms the central bank surveyed in its Financial System Survey, asset managers did indicate they have increased their liquidity. More than half of asset managers have shifted their investments towards government bonds, since 2022.

However, the report points out that because many other market participants hold the same cash equivalent assets with the intention of selling them during periods of market downturn, the result could be a fire sale that could increase financial stress.

Household debt

The report indicates that non-mortgage holders are experiencing the most amount of financial distress. The financial stress appears to impact renters the most.

The rates of arrears on credit cards and car loans for household without a mortgage have returned to pre-pandemic levels, and continue to edge up.

According to research conducted by the central bank, non-mortgage borrowers who carry a credit card balance of 80 per cent of their credit limit, are more likely to miss a future debt payment.

“Renters tend to have lower incomes to start with, so they've got lower buffers,” said Macklem. “They've been particularly hard hit by inflation, food, inflation, rent inflation, as well as high interest rates. You're seeing more indicators of stress there. That is certainly something that we need to keep an eye on.”

Among mortgage holders, half of borrowers still haven’t renewed their mortgages because they hold 5-year fixed mortgages. These borrowers will see higher median monthly payments than those who have already renewed.

For example, variable-rate mortgage holders could see their monthly payments increase by a median of over 60 per cent.

Canada's economy

The bank points to these higher monthly mortgage payments among households as a risk, if there is an economic shock or unemployment rises.

“We’ll also be watching how the labour market evolves, since the biggest factor that determines whether someone can service their debt is if they have a stable income,” said Bank of Canada Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers, during prepared remarks in Ottawa on Thursday.

Canadian businesses

Insolvencies increased sharply among businesses between 2022 and into 2023. As of March of this year, businesses insolvencies surpassed the average from before the pandemic.

The insolvencies were widespread across industries, but mainly impacted the small business sector. Factors that led to this financial distress include higher borrowing costs, slower economic activity and the phasing out of federal and provincial pandemic support programs.

“So far, the financial health of large businesses appears solid,” said Rogers. “But smaller businesses are showing more signs of financial stress. Insolvency filings by smaller firms have recently jumped after several years of below-average filings.”

Bank of Canada

Canadian banks

The report argues that Canadian banks remain stable. Credit performance among the large banks remains strong, with liquidity and capital requirements well above the regulatory minimums. However, the small and medium-sized banks are experiencing an increase in mortgage arrears.

BoC financial data

David MacDonald, senior economist at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, thinks this is a point of concern.

“The only thing I think that would be concerning to the bank is the increase the increase in arrears for mortgages in small and medium sized banks,” he said in an interview with CTV News. “So these are people are banks rather who are going to provide mortgages to higher risk lenders or higher risk mortgages, as well as in shorter term. So you know, these are folks with less secure employment, for instance, or a bridge loan of some kind and here we’re seeing big increases in arrears.”

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1.6879964 Thu, 9 May 2024 10:17:00 -0400 Thu, 9 May 2024 13:14:13 -0400
<![CDATA[How to overcome 'savings guilt' when you're living paycheque to paycheque]]> /business/how-to-overcome-savings-guilt-when-you-re-living-paycheque-to-paycheque-1.6876663 As the higher cost of living continues to squeeze household budgets, many Canadians find they have even less left over at the end of every month to squirrel away for the future.

Some might be feeling shame that they weren't able to save enough over the last few months and are internalizing that emotion, said Kalee Boisvert, a financial adviser at Raymond James Ltd, in an interview.

"I would say it's more so people feeling guilty that they're not saving enough, that they wish they could do more," Boisvert said.

"I'm hearing this from a lot of people, so, recognize that we're going through a really tough season."

While the cost of mortgage payments, rent, consumer debt — essentially everyday life — has jumped exponentially over the past few years, many household incomes did not keep pace — slowly chipping away at monthly savings quotas.

People often feel their inability to save enough is their personal responsibility, but the affordability crisis is happening externally, said Chantel Chapman, the CEO and co-founder of Trauma of Money.

"If there are affordability issues, we need to ask, 'Whose shame is this,' or 'Whose guilt is this?'" Chapman said.

Most of the household income could be going toward paying bills on time, maintaining a roof over their head and putting food on the table, she said. There may not be enough after that to put into savings.

"Those feelings of guilt — we need to question them," she said.

She added people don't have control over external factors such as an economic slowdown, mass layoffs, high rental costs and interest rates.

A December Coast Capital study showed more than a third of Canadians felt financial shame and half of survey respondents said their mental and emotional well-being was affected by the finances.

But there's a way to break the guilt cycle, Chapman said.

It starts with noticing the narrative. Pointing out what a person might be telling themselves — 'I'm stupid and bad with money because I'm not saving (but) everyone else is saving,' she said, and realizing its affect on the nervous system.

The effects can be skin becoming flushed or throat constricted, Chapman explained. Once her clients start to notice the correlation between the narrative and the bodily response, she asks them to identify who the guilt belongs to — is it internal or external?

This helps regulate the nervous system, Chapman said, and makes room for practical steps such as reviewing budgets, adjusting priorities around spending or simply talking about it with a friend.

De-personalizing guilt is the last step to breaking the cycle, Chapman said, especially for those who think it is entirely on them for not saving enough.

"We (need to) zoom out of ourselves," she said.

"The whole world has completely shifted, so of course money behaviours are going to shift," Chapman said.

Boisvert said many workers, who maintained their jobs during the pandemic, were able to save huge portions of money during pandemic-related restrictions. As normalcy returned, so did the spending — travelling, dining out, going into the office, among others.

"There's an element of comparison to what they were able to put away a couple of years ago," she said. "Now, they're feeling like it set a higher watermark for them."

Comparison with others also plays a role in savings guilt, said Jessica Moorhouse, a money expert and host of the More Money podcast. While comparisons aren't new, social media has made it worse, she added.

"The comparison game has shifted and now we just feel like, 'There's no way I can possibly keep up with anything,'" she said.

And that guilt is often present across ages no matter how frugal people have been, Moorhouse said.

For young people, the guilt is that they're not saving enough for a down payment on a home. People who have started families feel guilty for not saving enough for their kids. Those with retirement on the horizon have been feeling guilty for not meeting the savings goal they had in mind.

While being frugal or cutting back on expenses could help, there are other ways to increase savings.

Boisvert said people should take advantage of employee benefits and matching plans for extra savings and focus on long-term goals.

"This could be for a season. This might not last forever," she said, suggesting to track progress on long-term goals.

Getting creative and diversifying income streams can help boost your savings.

Moorhouse suggested getting a second job on the weekends, starting a side hustle or even changing jobs to increase your salary.

"I tell people to spend less and earn more," she said. "That is the thing that works."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 7, 2024.

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1.6876663 Tue, 7 May 2024 10:57:00 -0400 Tue, 7 May 2024 10:57:33 -0400
<![CDATA[Unionized workers rejecting more deals as fight for wage gains presses on]]> /canada/unionized-workers-rejecting-more-deals-as-fight-for-wage-gains-presses-on-1.6876580 Experts say union workers are feeling increasingly emboldened to reject tentative agreements as they fight to join the ranks of those benefiting from the recent wave of wage gains.

McGill University associate professor Barry Eidlin says there’s a clear uptick in workers rejecting deals that have been recommended by their bargaining committees.

He says workers are galvanized by inflation, the pandemic and a decades-long trend of employers having the upper hand.

Over the weekend, workers at a Nestlé chocolate plant in Toronto went on strike after turning down a tentative deal with the chocolate maker.

Eamonn Clarke, president of the Unifor local representing them, says workers’ expectations are much higher now because the cost of living has risen so much.

He says he’s seeing more tentative deals being rejected, or barely passing.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 7, 2024.

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1.6876580 Tue, 7 May 2024 10:36:00 -0400 Tue, 7 May 2024 10:37:54 -0400
<![CDATA[Stamp prices rise for the third time in five years amid financial woes for Canada Post]]> /canada/stamp-prices-rise-for-the-third-time-in-five-years-amid-financial-woes-for-canada-post-1.6875021 Canada Post is increasing stamp prices for the third time since 2019, a move the Crown corporation says is a "reality" of its sales-based revenue structure.

Effective Monday, postage rates are increasing by seven cents per stamp, to 99 from 92 cents, for those sold in booklets, coils and panes. Domestic stamps bought individually, meanwhile, rise to $1.15, from $1.07. The rate change will also impact other prices, including those for U.S., international and domestic registered mail services.

First announced in February, the increases received regulatory approval under the federal Canada Post Corporation Act last month.

This year's increase follows price bumps of five cents in 2019 and two cents the following year, as well as what Canada Post called "the last major pricing change" in the spring of 2014.

"Canada Post understands the importance of the delivery service it provides and works to minimize the impact of price changes on all customers, ensuring any increases are fair and reasonable," a release from the corporation reads.

"As an organization funded by revenue from the sale of its products and services, not taxpayer dollars, rate changes are a reality."

Canada Post has been facing financial difficulties in recent months, reporting a $748 million loss before tax in 2023 amid a "post-pandemic surge" in competition for parcels, decreasing transaction mail and rising costs.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the corporation's market share for parcels has dropped significantly, to 29 per cent last year from 62 per cent. Meanwhile, the average Canadian household received just two letters per week in 2023, down from six in the mid-2000s.

Without changes to the postal service, the release reads, "larger and unsustainable losses" can be expected in the future.

"Canadians understand our business model must change. They can see it in their mailbox," said Canada Post president and CEO Doug Ettinger.

"Canadians still value the importance of their national postal service, which is why we're working in partnership with the Government of Canada to put it back on the path to long-term financial sustainability." 

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1.6875021 Mon, 6 May 2024 10:51:00 -0400 Mon, 6 May 2024 10:51:11 -0400
<![CDATA[Macklem tries to stay out of the fray as MPs do their best to use him to score points]]> /politics/macklem-tries-to-stay-out-of-the-fray-as-mps-do-their-best-to-use-him-to-score-points-1.6874093 Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem navigates a political minefield every time he testifies before the House of Commons finance committee.

Four times a year, members of Parliament get the chance to question the governor on monetary policy.

At a time when inflation and interest rates are both high, MPs — particularly Opposition ones — are eager to ask him about politically charged issues.

Is the federal government spending too much? How much is carbon pricing pushing up prices? Would eliminating it bring interest rates down?

Mindful of the weight his words carry, the governor keeps his responses focused on the implications of fiscal policy on inflation.

But despite Macklem's best efforts, his words are often clipped and repackaged by politicians in service of their own narratives.

Parliamentary committees have become increasingly polarized over the course of the last two Liberal minority governments and have provided a venue for political theatre outside the House of Commons.

That was on full display Thursday when Conservatives sent out a news release following Macklem's appearance in committee, which said the governor had "confirmed that Trudeau's $61 billion in new spending is 'not helpful' in bringing inflation down and lowering interest rates."

Clips on X quickly circulated as well.

But what was missing was the fact that Macklem never singled out federal spending.

He noted provinces increased their spending, and it was largely deficit-financed.

"That has increased the contribution to growth from government," Macklem said in response to a question on whether fiscal and monetary policy are rowing in the same direction.

Macklem noted the central bank's April monetary policy report forecasts aggregate government spending will increase by 2.75 per cent this year.

That's up from its January forecast of 2.25 per cent, largely due to a slew of provincial budgets that increase spending

Notably, the federal budget had not yet been presented when these forecasts were published.

"So yeah, that is not helpful in trying to get inflation down," Macklem said about the increased growth rate for spending by all levels of Canadian government taken together.

The Canadian Press asked the Bank of Canada whether the governor's response was accurately captured in the Conservative news release.

“We'll let the governor's testimony speak for itself,” Paul Badertscher, the central bank's director of media relations, said in an email.

The Tories didn't respond to a question about whether they believe that provincial government spending has contributed to inflation.

Instead, they reiterated their interpretation of Macklem's comments.

"Macklem said government spending is 'not helpful' to efforts of bringing down inflation and interest rates," said spokesman Sebastian Skamski.

Because the federal Liberals increased overall spending in this year's budget, "it's clear" that Macklem was referring to "Justin Trudeau's spending," Skamski said.

After four years as governor during arguably the most economically tumultuous time in decades, Macklem is well-versed in how quickly the Bank of Canada can find itself caught in a political firestorm.

The central bank has taken heat from politicians of various stripes, union leaders and commentators alike.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre even vowed to fire Macklem for the Bank of Canada's policy response to the pandemic. He has not repeated that promise in a while.

Even as Tory MPs now lean on Macklem's credibility as they try to make a case that Liberal decisions are fuelling inflation, government MPs are looking for his validation.

Liberals often craft questions to the governor that try to prod him into defending their government's fiscal track record and policies.

Stephen Gordon, an economics professor at the University of Laval, said this is far from the first time that politicians have tried to use the Bank of Canada to score political points.

He said the central bank's long-standing tradition is to not wade into politics or pass judgement on government policy.

"It always sort of takes fiscal policy as a given. It's not supposed to express an opinion about whether it's good or bad or not," he said.

Gordon said it's unfortunate that MPs are more focused on scoring political points than asking the governor substantive questions.

"The parliamentary committee meetings are really a missed opportunity for politicians to really understand what's going on with monetary policy. The focus on scoring media clips or gotcha quotes makes it harder for the bank," he said.

"The bank really would like people to understand how things are going."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 5, 2024. 

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1.6874093 Sun, 5 May 2024 07:26:00 -0400 Mon, 6 May 2024 13:56:20 -0400
<![CDATA[You don't need to be an influencer to earn income from social media]]> /business/you-don-t-need-to-be-an-influencer-to-earn-income-from-social-media-1.6872676 If you’re like many people who are tired of the 9-to-5 grind, you may have dreamed of a life where you can earn passive income from social media while travelling or relaxing on a distant beach.

But just how legitimate are claims by some social media influencers and content creators that the average Jane or Joe can earn passive income from platforms like TikTok and Instagram, if you follow their advice?

I’m here to argue that it’s very possible to earn passive income from social media. However, it’s not as simple and easy as some self-styled gurus make it out to be. It requires time, effort, and quite often, a bit of luck.

How going 'viral' can change your life

Today, almost every major company has at least some type of social media presence. Before coming to social media platforms, many companies were already successful businesses and many of today’s influencers already had some level of fame, notoriety, or influence in their niche.

Not everybody, though.

Take 83-year-old Calgary resident , for example. Earlier this year, Bill became a viral sensation on TikTok, garnering millions of views for his comedic short-form content. His content is original, funny, and authentic. Now, he’s known around the world.

Going viral can take your small-time social media presence worldwide overnight, and can completely change your life by:

  • Exposing your content to a global audience
  • Helping you catch the eye of big-name brands and celebrities
  • Exposing your small business to millions of customers

The best part is that going viral is essentially free, other than the time and effort you put into making the content. You can receive the same level of attention that multinational corporations like Coca-Cola spend billions for.

The difficult part is that it’s almost impossible to predict what content goes viral. It’s almost like winning the lottery, which means that it’s not always an achievable goal most people should aim for.

Here’s the good news, though. You don’t need to go viral to create a passive income stream for yourself on social media.

How TikTok and Instagram influencers make money

If you’re reading this, you’ve likely seen so-called gurus selling online courses on how anybody can create a full-time living for themselves on social media. The thing about gurus, though, is that they always make things seem easier than they are.

Just like entrepreneurship and starting your own business, creating a successful social media presence that you can profit financially from isn’t easy.

You’ll also have to learn to adapt and pivot when sudden changes come, such as Twitter buying Vine in 2012, or the potential for a U.S./Canadian TikTok ban.

However, if you’re consistent, work hard, and are willing to adapt to changes, there are several time-tested ways that anybody can use to earn passive income as an influencer on platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and others.

1. Affiliate marketing

Affiliate marketing is one of the oldest ways of making money online. Essentially, you market and endorse another brand’s product through your page. Whenever one of your followers takes your advice and buys a product through your unique affiliate link, you earn a small commission from the sale.

Amazon currently has one of the world’s largest affiliate programs, making it one of the easiest places for social media start-ups to start earning some side money. Once you have a more established presence, you’ll likely find it more profitable to work with larger, more reputable brands.

2. Influencer marketing

Once you’ve built a strong organic following for yourself, businesses and brands may approach you and pay you to help bring awareness to them. On a large scale, you’re talking big-name celebrities and sports stars endorsing a makeup brand, fast-food chain, or car brand.

You don’t have to have millions of followers to become an influencer, though.

Smaller, more local businesses often prefer to work with “” who have a strong loyal network of fans, often fewer than 20,000 followers. This can be a great way for you to build a passive income stream by leveraging your knowledge of your own city.

3. Selling a product or service

If you have a side hustle or small business, growing your social media presence can be one of the best ways to attract new customers.

Aside from directly promoting your content using TikTok or Instagram, consider making fun, informative content that makes your brand more personal, such as:

  • Behind-the-scenes (how you make or do what you do)
  • Product/service giveaways
  • Customer testimonials and reviews from your loyal customers
  • Free tips and advice that relate to your product or service

4. Donations and memberships

While most social media platforms discourage heckling, you may still post links in your bio to other platforms such as Patreon, GoFundMe, Discord, and others where you can accept donations or sell membership programs.

For example, I know a music producer and guitar player who offers a $5/month membership to access his tutorials on mixing music and learning guitar. If you truly consider yourself an expert in a certain niche, this can be a great way to leverage your skill set and earn money as an educator.

Being an influencer isn’t as passive as it seems

Like many things in life, having a career as an influencer is often glamorized. In reality, the average social media influencer isn’t out here earning six figures, jetting around the world, and driving supercars.

Is it possible? Yes.

Should you expect it? No.

If you want to build a passive income stream on social media using one of the time-tested methods I outlined above, it’s going to take time. You’re going to have to learn videography and editing, spend your nights and days off creating content, and stick to a consistent posting schedule.

It will require just as much work as starting your own small business, and you may not see a financial payoff for months or years, while you build your following. But if you truly love it and enjoy it, why not give it a shot?

Unsure of where to start? Entrepreneur and social media expert has a great free guide that simplifies how to start making content by documenting your daily life.

Don’t quit your day job … yet

Creating an income stream from TikTok or Instagram is an achievable goal. At first, though, it’s not going to be passive. You’ll need to invest time and money into creating content and building your brand.

Even after you’re established, you’ll need to continue to create if you want to keep growing. If you work hard and stay consistent, the payoff is that you can build a career for yourself that you truly enjoy and where you’re not bound by set schedules.

This will all take time, though. I recommend that you stay in your current line of work to keep your bills paid. If you’re truly interested in building an online brand, start doing it in your free time, until you start seeing results. Once you no longer need your job to pay the bills, then you can go all-in on your social media brand.

Not all influencers quit their jobs, though. Starting a social media brand can be a great way to diversify your income or help you expand your personal network while remaining in your current line of work.

Christopher Liew is a CFA Charterholder and former financial advisor. He writes personal finance tips for thousands of daily Canadian readers on his .

Do you have a question, tip or story idea about personal finance? Please email us at dotcom@bellmedia.ca.

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1.6872676 Sun, 5 May 2024 07:00:00 -0400 Sun, 5 May 2024 07:16:20 -0400
<![CDATA[Loblaw leaders call criticism 'misguided,' say they aren't to blame for high food prices]]> /business/loblaw-leaders-call-criticism-misguided-say-they-aren-t-to-blame-for-high-food-prices-1.6870781 Loblaw chairman Galen Weston and the company's new CEO are pushing back against critics who blame the grocery giant for soaring food prices, as a month-long boycott of the retailer gets underway.

Speaking at the company’s annual meeting, President and CEO Per Bank said misinformation about Loblaw is circulating online leading to what he referred to as "misguided criticism" of the retailer. A Reddit page called "" has more than 67,000 members and has led the charge in encouraging a boycott.

"I think it’s great that people are standing up," says Caroline Schwim, a Loblaws customer who has decided to participate in the boycott told CTV News "I come from a country (South Africa) where there’s a Competition Commission and I think the canoodling and price fixing between the shops here is really disgusting."

Consumers are voicing their frustration and anger online, upset with food prices and big grocer, which have consistently reported large profits as the cost of food has climbed.

In its latest quarterly earnings report, Loblaw saw its profits grow nearly 10 per cent compared to last year, to $459 million. Empire, which owns Sobeys, also reported an increase in profit last quarter, with net earnings of $134.2 million. Metro saw its profits drop, but still pulled in $187.1 million, down from $218.8 million the year before.

"As a well-known company and Canada's largest grocer, it is natural that Loblaw would be singled out as a focal point for media and government and of course consumer frustrations," said Weston, assuring shareholders the company continues to act with integrity.

It’s a pledge reiterated by Bank, who said the company is working hard to "reduce costs and do things more efficiently."

Loblaw has set up a meeting with the boycott organizers. It’s an example of the company’s willingness to engage with customers, experts say, even though strong earnings reports can undermine that message.

"I think there is some indication that they are listening to the criticism," said Monica Labarge, a marketing professor at Queen’s University. "But at the same time. then you have these earnings reports that come out that make it sound a little bit like they are saying one thing on one hand and doing another."

There have also been calls to steal from Loblaw, something the boycott organizers say they are not affiliated with. Both Bank and Weston slammed the idea, saying they are hopeful Canadians will reject it.

"There's a group of people who have been relentlessly propagating a narrative that they know is false,” Weston said. "And it is now being used to justify theft on a grand scale."

While food prices are still rising, they aren’t going up as quickly as they once were. Statistics Canada says the food inflation rate in March was 1.9 per cent compared to the year before, lower than February's annual rate of 2.4 per cent. In late 2022 and early 2023, grocery inflation peaked at 11.4 per cent.

With files from The Canadian Press 

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1.6870781 Thu, 2 May 2024 12:19:00 -0400 Thu, 2 May 2024 16:23:43 -0400
<![CDATA[There's a limit to how much interest rates in Canada and U.S. can diverge: Macklem]]> /business/there-s-a-limit-to-how-much-interest-rates-in-canada-and-u-s-can-diverge-macklem-1.6870691 Canadian interest rates don't have to match U.S. or global rates, Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says, but they need to stay within a certain ballpark.

Macklem made the comments while testifying before the House of Commons finance committee alongside senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers on Thursday.

 "Our interest rates in Canada don't need to be the same as the U.S. rate or global rates. But there is a limit to how far they can diverge," Macklem said.

"We're not close to that limit."

The Bank of Canada is widely expected to begin lowering its policy rate in the coming months, while forecasters expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to take longer.

The Bank of Canada's key interest rate is currently sitting at five per cent, which is below the Federal Reserve's target range for the funds rate of 5.25 to 5.5 per cent.

BMO chief economist Douglas Porter said the reason interest rates can't diverge too much is because that would lead to a significant depreciation in the Canadian dollar relative to the U.S. dollar.

That would make imports from the U.S. more expensive and disrupt trade if there are big currency swings, he added.

Porter said the Bank of Canada has to tread carefully because a divergence in rates could also lead to an overreaction in the foreign exchange market, which would further depreciate the Canadian dollar.

"There is a risk that the foreign exchange markets could overshoot. So in other words, overreact to something that maybe Canada would do," he said.

The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates on Wednesday and signalled it won't cut them until it is more confident that the annual inflation rate is headed back to the two per cent target.

The ongoing strength of the U.S. economy has made it a global outlier. Inflation has also been stickier south of the border.

"In recent months, inflation has shown a lack of further progress toward our two per cent objective," said Jerome Powell, the chair of the Federal Reserve.

"It is likely that gaining such greater confidence will take longer than previously expected," he added.

In contrast, the Bank of Canada has been encouraged by recent progress on the inflation front.

Core measures of inflation, which strip out volatile prices, have eased over the last few months.

Canada's annual inflation rate was 2.9 per cent in March, below the U.S.'s 3.5 per cent.

Macklem has said that the Bank of Canada is seeing the right trends to begin lowering interest rates, but it wants to see those trends sustained for longer.

Forecasters widely expect the Bank of Canada to begin lowering its policy rate in June or July.

Porter said the Bank of Canada has some room to cut interest rates ahead of the Federal Reserve.

"Our view is that the (Bank of Canada) can certainly cut one time without the Fed. They may even be able to cut two times as long as there is the expectation that the next move by the Fed will will be to cut," Porter said.

"I think that's about as far I think the (Bank of Canada) can go without causing some pretty serious stress on on the Canadian dollar."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 2, 2024.

— With files from The Associated Press.

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1.6870691 Thu, 2 May 2024 11:29:00 -0400 Thu, 2 May 2024 13:17:12 -0400
<![CDATA[Bank of Canada's Macklem says federal budget won't have much impact on inflation]]> /business/bank-of-canada-s-macklem-says-federal-budget-won-t-have-much-impact-on-inflation-1.6869609 Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem says he doesn't think the federal budget tabled last month will have much of an effect on inflation.

Macklem was testifying at a Senate committee alongside senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers following the central bank's latest interest rate announcement.

The governor says the spending plan hasn't changed the federal government's fiscal track by much.

Macklem says that's why he doesn't expect it to have a significant impact on economic growth or inflation.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland's budget offsets new spending with higher taxes and stronger-than-expected government revenues, which has kept the deficit in check.

The Bank of Canada has been encouraged by progress made on getting inflation down and has signalled that it's inching closer to cutting interest rates.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 1, 2024 

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1.6869609 Wed, 1 May 2024 17:55:00 -0400 Wed, 1 May 2024 17:55:22 -0400
<![CDATA[Canadian economy loses steam after strong start to year, grows 0.2% in February]]> /business/canadian-economy-loses-steam-after-strong-start-to-year-grows-0-2-in-february-1.6867091 The Canadian economy lost momentum after a roaring start to the year, reinforcing economists' expectations that the Bank of Canada is on track to cut interest rates in the coming months.

Statistics Canada reported Tuesday that real gross domestic product rose 0.2 per cent in February. That followed a 0.5 per cent gain in January.

"Today's GDP report confirmed our expectations that the January surge in output was temporary, and in no way marked an inflection point for the growth backdrop in Canada that remains very weak," said RBC economist Claire Fan in a client note.

Looking ahead, the federal agency says its advance estimate for March indicated that real GDP was essentially unchanged for the month.

Based on the preliminary figure, the Canadian economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.5 per cent in the first quarter of 2024.

Although the economy continues to expand, economists say the latest data reinforces the idea that the growth is sluggish as higher interest rates weigh on consumer and business spending decisions.

That will likely land as good news for the Bank of Canada, which is looking for continued evidence that the economy and inflation are responding to tighter monetary policy.

Governor Tiff Macklem said earlier this month that the central bank is already seeing the right conditions to begin lowering its policy rate from five per cent. But he said he wants to see those conditions sustained to ensure inflation is in fact heading down to the bank's two per cent target.

"The loss of momentum as the quarter progressed is the bigger takeaway from this report. That puts additional pressure on the BoC to begin cutting as soon as June," wrote BMO's Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist.

The sluggishness in the Canadian economy is also evident in the labour market, where job creation has lagged population growth. In March, the unemployment rate jumped to 6.1 per cent.

Reitzes cautioned in his client note, however, that a June rate cut still depends on April inflation data, which is set to be released in a few weeks.

Canada's inflation rate came in at 2.9 per cent in March, up slightly from the previous month.

Statistics Canada's report on Tuesday shows12 of 20 sectors showed growth in February.

Services-producing industries increased 0.2 per cent, helped by the transportation and warehousing sector which increased 1.4 per cent, as rail transportation grew 5.5 per cent with activity returning to normal after freezing temperatures in January in Western Canada.

Air transportation also increased 4.8 per cent in February, driven by growth in international travel as some airlines increased capacity to Asia.

Statistics Canada said goods-producing industries were essentially unchanged.

The mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction sector grew 2.5 per cent in February as oil and gas extraction increased 3.3 per cent, partially offsetting a contraction in January. Mining and quarrying (except oil and gas) rose 1.9 per cent.

The utilities sector contracted 2.6 per cent, while the manufacturing sector fell 0.4 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 30, 2024.

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1.6867091 Tue, 30 Apr 2024 07:20:00 -0400 Tue, 30 Apr 2024 12:40:36 -0400
<![CDATA[NDP says Ottawa's new grocery task force isn't living up to government promises]]> /politics/ndp-says-ottawa-s-new-grocery-task-force-isn-t-living-up-to-government-promises-1.6867069 The federal government says the task force it created to monitor and investigate grocery retailers' practices has not conducted any probes and doesn't have a mandate to take enforcement action.

The acknowledgement was made earlier this month in response to written questions by the NDP.

Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne said last fall the government would establish a grocery task force within the Office of Consumer Affairs. He described it as a dedicated team that would monitor grocers' work to stabilize food prices, and investigate and uncover practices like shrinkflation.

The April federal budget reiterated the message that the task force is monitoring the grocers’ work on price stabilization, “as well as investigating other price inflation practices in the grocery sector.”

But the task force appears to have less teeth than the government's description suggests.

In February, NDP MP and agri-food critic Alistair MacGregor requested information from the federal government on the task force and its investigations.

The response from the government he received this month says, “As the task force has no mandate to take enforcement actions, it has not conducted any investigations.”

“Why, after making all of these bold pronouncements back in October and bringing a lot of people's hopes up that the government was actually going to do something, why is it that the grocery task force has not conducted any investigations?” MacGregor said in an interview.

He said he was surprised and disappointed to find out the task force has no mandate to investigate.

“I think that is a pretty flimsy excuse coming from the Liberals, actually saying that the task force doesn't have a mandate to take enforcement actions, and therefore it can't conduct any investigations.”

A spokesman for Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada provided information on the task force, but didn’t directly answer questions addressed to Champagne about why the government's announcement and budget said the task force would investigate grocers' practices, or about MacGregor’s criticisms.

The task force is operational, and is made up of government officials “dedicated to examining retail and grocery issues with a view to improving affordability for Canadians,” said ISED spokesman Hans Parmar in an email.

Its mandate and responsibilities include providing information, analysis and recommendations; engaging other government departments as well as external experts and representatives; working with consumer groups that are doing research and advocacy work; and promoting information to consumers “so they are aware of their rights and empowering them to make informed marketplace choices,” said Parmar.

MacGregor thinks the task force should be conducting investigations even if it can’t take enforcement action.

“If it were to find anything, it would almost certainly be able to kick that up to the minister's office, who has a greater, much wider array of powers and tools to use, or at least to be able to report back to Parliament and to Canadians on what's really going on in the sector,” he said.

The Liberal government has been putting pressure on Canada’s major grocers to do something about rising food prices, and last fall called them up to Ottawa and demanded they present plans on the actions they were taking.

A House of Commons committee has also been studying the issue of food prices, and has brought executives from the grocers as well as industry experts before the committee to answer questions.

MacGregor said the committee is currently working on a draft of its second report regarding food price inflation, and hopes to table it soon.

Though food inflation has been steadily moderating from its double-digit heights, prices are still significantly higher than they were just a few years ago, and frustration among Canadians with the major grocers has only mounted.

Pressure is also increasing for the grocers to sign on to a grocery code of conduct that seeks to improve fair dealings in the industry, particularly between the big grocers and their suppliers. Loblaw and Walmart said last December that they wouldn’t sign the code as currently drafted, because they think it will raise retail food prices.

There has been talk of the government making the code mandatory as a result, with the House of Commons committee calling on the two holdouts to sign on, or it would recommend that federal and provincial governments adopt legislation to make it mandatory.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 30, 2024.

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<![CDATA[Majority of aspiring homeowners awaiting rate cuts before buying: BMO survey]]> /business/majority-of-aspiring-homeowners-awaiting-rate-cuts-before-buying-bmo-survey-1.6865922 The majority of Canadians aspiring to buy a home say they will push their plans to next year or later to wait for interest rates to drop, a new survey shows.

Bank of Montreal says 72 per cent of respondents hoping to buy a home will wait until borrowing costs fall — an increase of four per cent compared with last year.

While are expected in the second half of the year, BMO Capital Markets senior economist Robert Kavcic says it is still a long way for rates to be low enough to restore affordability to recent norms.

The survey, conducted by Ipsos from Feb. 28 to March 18, shows 85 per cent of respondents say they're making real financial progress toward buying their first home but face financial anxiety.

Among the top concerns are unexpected expenses, climate considerations such as wildfires and the high costs of homeownership.

BMO's Hassan Pirnia says despite the economic and market challenges, many young Canadians are preparing to embark on their homebuying journey and enter the real estate market for the first time.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 29, 2024.

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<![CDATA[Documents reveal Ottawa's efforts to get Loblaw, Walmart on board with grocery code]]> /politics/documents-reveal-ottawa-s-efforts-to-get-loblaw-walmart-on-board-with-grocery-code-1.6862823 It was evident to the federal government as early as last fall that Loblaw and Walmart might be holdouts to the grocery code of conduct, jeopardizing the project's success.

Documents obtained through access to information legislation shed new light on the federal government’s efforts to convince the two retailers to sign the grocery code of conduct, with cracks appearing in the months leading up to a House of Commons meeting where the grocers said they couldn't sign the near-complete code.

“There are ongoing federal efforts to seek commitment from key players, including large retailers like Walmart and Loblaws, to participate in the code,” read a briefing note prepared on Sept. 22 for a meeting between federal agriculture and agri-food minister Lawrence MacAulay and Quebec agriculture and food minister André Lamontagne.

The document, obtained through the Access to Information Act, says participation by some of the largest retailers — namely Loblaw and Walmart — is “still to be determined.”

The code of conduct is intended to set out agreed-upon rules for negotiations between industry players, including retailers and suppliers. It would also include a dispute resolution process.

It was meant to be voluntary, but it's always been acknowledged that it needs all the major players on board to work, said Francis Chechile, a spokesman for MacAulay, in a statement.

Until last fall, the code appeared to be progressing well, said Chechile, noting that federal, provincial and territorial governments had been closely monitoring progress and engaging with stakeholders including Loblaw and Walmart.

“By late October, it had become evident that the hesitation from Loblaw and Walmart was such that it posed a risk to the successful implementation of a code with full industry participation," said Chechile.

On Dec. 7, leaders from Loblaw and Walmart told the House of Commons committee studying food prices that they couldn’t commit to signing the code in its current form, citing concerns it would raise prices.

At the meeting, Loblaw chairman Galen Weston said he stood by a letter the company had sent a month earlier to the committee developing the code. The letter said that Loblaw was worried the code could “raise food prices for Canadians by more than $1 billion."

The Dec. 7 committee meeting served as public confirmation of the two grocers' unwillingness to sign on to the code as drafted, said Michael Graydon, CEO of the Food, Health and Consumer Products of Canada association and leader of the group that's been developing the code. However, he also said there were indications for him around October that this might happen.

As the code neared completion, plans were underway to launch a grocery code adjudicator office.

But after the Dec. 7 comments by Loblaw and Walmart, progress on the office stalled. Work to hire an adjudicator is on hold, and a funding request for the office is in limbo, said Graydon.

However, even before indications of the two grocers' reticence became apparent to Graydon and the federal government in October, officials were working to get the retailers on board, the documents show.

Deputy minister of agriculture Stefanie Beck, two representatives from Loblaw and three other government officials met on Sept. 22 to discuss several issues, primarily sustainable agriculture, according to a briefing note.

But they also planned to talk about the code. The briefing note said government officials should “underscore the federal desire that all large retailers commit to the grocery code of conduct.”

“Loblaws has not taken an active role in the industry-led process to develop a grocery code of conduct and they have been reluctant to publicly confirm support for the code until the industry proposal is finalized,” the note reads.

The federal, provincial and territorial ministers had a call on Nov. 27 to discuss the code and the possibility that the two major retailers might not adopt it, according to a briefing note.

Though the code is meant to be voluntary, recently there have been talks of making it law instead to force everyone to participate.

MacAulay has said that the government is “actively examining all federal options,” including legislation.

And in a letter mid-February, the House of Commons committee urged Loblaw and Walmart to sign on, saying if they didn’t, it would “not hesitate to recommend that the federal and provincial governments adopt legislation to make it mandatory.”

Graydon is still hopeful.

“I don't think it's dead in the water; I think there is some really strong desire to try to find a solution,” he said.

The group is looking at whether some of the language of the code could be changed to bring more clarity, or more prescriptiveness, said Graydon — “and there seems to be openness, at least from one of the retailers, to have those conversations.”

Conversations with Loblaw have given the committee a chance to explain aspects of the code and see whether a solution can be reached, he said.

“My sense is they're legitimate in their approach to try to find a solution.”

Loblaw spokeswoman Catherine Thomas said in an email the company is an “active participant in the ongoing industry process” and is optimistic a code can be finalized that everyone can support.

Walmart Canada spokeswoman Sarah Kennedy directed The Canadian Press to previous public statements about the code by the retailer, including one from October in which the company said it’s “conscious of adding unnecessary burdens that could increase the cost of food for Canadians.”

A more recent statement from mid-February states that Walmart supports initiatives promoting fairness and reciprocity, and benefiting consumers.

“While we have significant concerns about the code in its current form, we will continue to work constructively with the industry on this topic.”

Proponents of the code have pushed back on claims that it could lead to higher retail prices.

The documents also show that the industry steering committee requested around $1.8 million in government funding to support the implementation of the not-for-profit grocery code adjudicator office.

A memo to the deputy agriculture minister digitally signed on June 6, 2023 describes the request for a non-repayable contribution from federal, territorial and provincial governments to support the office for its first two years, “until its revenue model is implemented and becomes self-sufficient.”

“The majority of funding is going to come from large retailers and large manufacturers,” said Graydon, though the group has planned for scenarios in which not all major players sign on right away.

“Hopefully, it's the opposite, everybody's in, everybody's early, we get the funding that we require, and we can reduce the requirements in regards to any sort of contribution from government,” he said.

Chechile confirmed that “officials are awaiting the outcome of industry discussions before taking further steps” related to the funding request.

— With files from researcher Ken Rubin in Ottawa

This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 26, 2024.

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